Technical Analysis

Stocks to Watch: 9th August, 2016

The financial institutions, having prolonged the end of the half year earnings season conveniently held positions longer than expected. Unfortunately, almost all traders have positioned for the expected half year incentives from the banks. In other words, the positive impact of the much awaited interim dividend on price when released tends to zero.

Meanwhile, the market remains ripe for short term investors who are willing play around various investors’ reaction to corporate results. Please understand that no matter the nature of the result, smart investors stand good chance of making money. The strategy is to hold and position at the bottom for negative reaction, especially when the company in question is liquid and is a blue chip. On the other hand, catching in on a positive reaction for timely exit is equally an avenue to improve your portfolio values.

Please note that getting it wrong is not a crime, what kills investments is not taking your loss when it is low. See below for brief analysis of selected equities.

Access Bank

Price Analysis                                                                                    Volume Analysis

  • Last Trade Price:N5.60                                   Last Volume Index:0.84
  • Support: N5.40                                                 Last Buy Volume (%): 100
  • Resistance:N5.97                                              Last Sell Volume (%): 0
  • Best Entry Price: N5.28                                   Last Wk Volume Index: 0.47
  • Best Exit Price:N5.90                                       Last Wk Buy Volume(%): 20
    •                                                                         Last Wk Sell Volume(%):80

 

What to Do: Technically, Access bank is a buy only for short term trading, 5,14,21 day moving average confirmed a buy position 10 trading days prior and the stock still remains within buyable range. Technical chart noted investors’ desire to wait for a key fundamental factor; this has clearly held the equity within the buy limit longer than expected. We therefore recommend smart and very cautious positions in Access Bank. Entry around the support is commendable.

UBA

Price Analysis                                                                                    Volume Analysis

  • Last Trade Price:N4.55                                        Last Volume Index:0.13
  • Support: N4.27                                                      Last Buy Volume (%): 45
  • Resistance:N4.71                                                   Last Sell Volume (%): 55
  • Best Entry Price: N4.25                                       Last Wk Volume Index: 1.15
  • Best Exit Price:N4.68                                           Last Wk Buy Volume(%): 4
    •                                                                             Last Wk Sell Volume(%):96

 

What to Do: Bollinger Band has maintained a narrow trading range for the past 8 trading days. The implication of this is that, until the equity experience a sharp movement either towards the north or south, positions will be held longer than anticipated as buy and sell signals will come frequently. Our 5,14,21 days moving average is currently in a confirmed buy position. We recommend a cautious tread, as any key fundamental news will sharply impact the price (up or down). Meanwhile, all current positions should be held while investors watch closely for fundamental news.

NIGERIA BREWERIES

Price Analysis                                                                                    Volume Analysis

  • Last Trade Price:N133.03                             Last Volume Index:0.32
  • Support: N137.00                                           Last Buy Volume (%): 64
  • Resistance:N146.51                                        Last Sell Volume (%): 36
  • Best Entry Price: N130.13/N116.94            Last Wk Volume Index: 0.11
  • Best Exit Price:N142.59                                 Last Wk Buy Volume(%): 43
    •                                                                       Last Wk Sell Volume(%):57

 

What to Do: Though our 5,14,21 moving average is still in a sell position, Bollinger Band is a buy yesterday. Making the picture more interesting is the way the market responded to the buy signal during yesterday’s trade. The divergence between the price and volume has also further confirmed the attractiveness of the stock at the current market price. We therefore recommend investors to play around the statistics stated above. Please note that entering the equity in tranches from the current market price is an intelligent decision.

ZENITH BANK

Price Analysis                                                                                    Volume Analysis

  • Last Trade Price:N16.01                                 Last Volume Index:0.34
  • Support: N15.13                                                Last Buy Volume (%): 0
  • Resistance:N17.12                                            Last Sell Volume (%): 100
  • Best Entry Price: N15.13                                 Last Wk Volume Index: 0.69
  • Best Exit Price:N16.86                                    Last Wk Buy Volume(%): 2
    •                                                                        Last Wk Sell Volume(%):98

 

What to Do: Considering the price analysis stated above, it will be safe to say that Zenith Bank is currently treading around its top region. Nevertheless, the short gap between the best entry and exit price is attractive enough for short term positions. We are of the opinion that entry should be considered below the last trade price, even though the equity will be very attractive from the best entry price.

AIICO INSURANCE

Price Analysis                                                                                    Volume Analysis

  • Last Trade Price:N0.68                                 Last Volume Index:0.55
  • Support: N0.66                                                Last Buy Volume (%): 100
  • Resistance:N0.78                                            Last Sell Volume (%): 0
  • Best Entry Price: N0.66                                 Last Wk Volume Index: 0.82
  • Best Exit Price:N.75                                        Last Wk Buy Volume(%): 33
    •                                                                       Last Wk Sell Volume(%):67

 

What to Do: Going by signals from most indicators tested, eg. Bollinger Band, 3 point moving averages, candle stick pattern and trend analysis, this equity is currently a buy. Please note the narrow trading range it currently trade. Target spread in this stock should be less than 10k.

 

 

Comment here

Technical Analysis

Stocks to Watch: 9th August, 2016

The financial institutions, having prolonged the end of the half year earnings season conveniently held positions longer than expected. Unfortunately, almost all traders have positioned for the expected half year incentives from the banks. In other words, the positive impact of the much awaited interim dividend on price when released tends to zero.

Meanwhile, the market remains ripe for short term investors who are willing play around various investors’ reaction to corporate results. Please understand that no matter the nature of the result, smart investors stand good chance of making money. The strategy is to hold and position at the bottom for negative reaction, especially when the company in question is liquid and is a blue chip. On the other hand, catching in on a positive reaction for timely exit is equally an avenue to improve your portfolio values.

Please note that getting it wrong is not a crime, what kills investments is not taking your loss when it is low. See below for brief analysis of selected equities.

Access Bank

Price Analysis                                                                                    Volume Analysis

  • Last Trade Price:N5.60                                   Last Volume Index:0.84
  • Support: N5.40                                                 Last Buy Volume (%): 100
  • Resistance:N5.97                                              Last Sell Volume (%): 0
  • Best Entry Price: N5.28                                   Last Wk Volume Index: 0.47
  • Best Exit Price:N5.90                                       Last Wk Buy Volume(%): 20
    •                                                                         Last Wk Sell Volume(%):80

 

What to Do: Technically, Access bank is a buy only for short term trading, 5,14,21 day moving average confirmed a buy position 10 trading days prior and the stock still remains within buyable range. Technical chart noted investors’ desire to wait for a key fundamental factor; this has clearly held the equity within the buy limit longer than expected. We therefore recommend smart and very cautious positions in Access Bank. Entry around the support is commendable.

UBA

Price Analysis                                                                                    Volume Analysis

  • Last Trade Price:N4.55                                        Last Volume Index:0.13
  • Support: N4.27                                                      Last Buy Volume (%): 45
  • Resistance:N4.71                                                   Last Sell Volume (%): 55
  • Best Entry Price: N4.25                                       Last Wk Volume Index: 1.15
  • Best Exit Price:N4.68                                           Last Wk Buy Volume(%): 4
    •                                                                             Last Wk Sell Volume(%):96

 

What to Do: Bollinger Band has maintained a narrow trading range for the past 8 trading days. The implication of this is that, until the equity experience a sharp movement either towards the north or south, positions will be held longer than anticipated as buy and sell signals will come frequently. Our 5,14,21 days moving average is currently in a confirmed buy position. We recommend a cautious tread, as any key fundamental news will sharply impact the price (up or down). Meanwhile, all current positions should be held while investors watch closely for fundamental news.

NIGERIA BREWERIES

Price Analysis                                                                                    Volume Analysis

  • Last Trade Price:N133.03                             Last Volume Index:0.32
  • Support: N137.00                                           Last Buy Volume (%): 64
  • Resistance:N146.51                                        Last Sell Volume (%): 36
  • Best Entry Price: N130.13/N116.94            Last Wk Volume Index: 0.11
  • Best Exit Price:N142.59                                 Last Wk Buy Volume(%): 43
    •                                                                       Last Wk Sell Volume(%):57

 

What to Do: Though our 5,14,21 moving average is still in a sell position, Bollinger Band is a buy yesterday. Making the picture more interesting is the way the market responded to the buy signal during yesterday’s trade. The divergence between the price and volume has also further confirmed the attractiveness of the stock at the current market price. We therefore recommend investors to play around the statistics stated above. Please note that entering the equity in tranches from the current market price is an intelligent decision.

ZENITH BANK

Price Analysis                                                                                    Volume Analysis

  • Last Trade Price:N16.01                                 Last Volume Index:0.34
  • Support: N15.13                                                Last Buy Volume (%): 0
  • Resistance:N17.12                                            Last Sell Volume (%): 100
  • Best Entry Price: N15.13                                 Last Wk Volume Index: 0.69
  • Best Exit Price:N16.86                                    Last Wk Buy Volume(%): 2
    •                                                                        Last Wk Sell Volume(%):98

 

What to Do: Considering the price analysis stated above, it will be safe to say that Zenith Bank is currently treading around its top region. Nevertheless, the short gap between the best entry and exit price is attractive enough for short term positions. We are of the opinion that entry should be considered below the last trade price, even though the equity will be very attractive from the best entry price.

AIICO INSURANCE

Price Analysis                                                                                    Volume Analysis

  • Last Trade Price:N0.68                                 Last Volume Index:0.55
  • Support: N0.66                                                Last Buy Volume (%): 100
  • Resistance:N0.78                                            Last Sell Volume (%): 0
  • Best Entry Price: N0.66                                 Last Wk Volume Index: 0.82
  • Best Exit Price:N.75                                        Last Wk Buy Volume(%): 33
    •                                                                       Last Wk Sell Volume(%):67

 

What to Do: Going by signals from most indicators tested, eg. Bollinger Band, 3 point moving averages, candle stick pattern and trend analysis, this equity is currently a buy. Please note the narrow trading range it currently trade. Target spread in this stock should be less than 10k.

 

 

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